– For my analysis, Azerbaijan got everything president Aliyev has been calling for in the terms of the basic principles but even better. Because basic principles call for a change in the legal status of Nagorno Karabakh but clearly it seems that Nagorno Karabakh will unambiguously remain the part of Azerbaijan under this agreement. This is a huge loss for Armenia and a huge win for Azerbaijan.
– What do you think about the form of the final peace agreement? And what advantages will it give to Azerbaijan?
– In addition, even going beyond the basic principles Azerbaijan gains restored communications road between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan. That’s also a big gain that was something that has been discussed the way back 2001 during the negotiations in Key West, Florida, US. That road had never been the part of basic principles so this is a bonus that Azerbaijan gets. So Azerbaijan also gets to restore control of its lands and Azerbaijani displaced persons get to return to their homes. And hopefully, Armenians will remain in Nagorno Karabakh, Khankendi and again Azerbaijanis and Armenians will again be neighbours. Additionally, this agreement shows the world that Azerbaijan was behaving properly. It did not seek for retributions against Armenian civilians on the contrary president Aliyev all the way threw his calls he said Armenian people are not Azerbaijan’s enemies and hopefully they will remain their homes. And that is going to make Azerbaijan look great on the international stage, increase its prestige even while it has made its huge strategic gains on the ground, and importantly at the negotiations table at the end of the day.
– Do you believe this statement will reduce Russia’s potential to put pressure on Azerbaijan?
– Well, I think Azerbaijan was supported by Russia in the end here during the war by President Putin apparently, putting a lot of pressure on Armenian PM Pashinyan to stop the war and essentially, give up, surrender. However, the price for that appears to be the presence of the Russian peacekeepers on the ground in Azerbaijan. And that will increase Russia`s influence and ability to pressure Azerbaijan. That`s said there are rumours that there might be Turkish peacekeepers involved which is a counter to the Russian influence. And over a time as the transit links open between Armenia and Turkey and Armenia and Azerbaijan which is the part of the agreement. I think we are going to a huge increase in Turkey`s economic and geopolitical influence on the region. And we`ll probably see Turkey and Armenia normalize their relations again. That will create a whole new geostrategic dynamic that will reduce Russia`s ability to pressure Azerbaijan.
– What prospects does the current agreement promise in terms of domestic political processes in Armenia? How about the fate of Pashinyan?
– In terms of Armenia`s domestic political process, I think that we have already seen that there are large protests apparently against it. People, the protestors have broken into the Government Buildings in Armenia based on the footage I was just watching. And it appears that they have broken into the Parliament. There is a new brawl is going on. And I think, as a result of all these, the PM Pashinyan is really not going to be in power too much longer, I would guess and he will go down in history forever as the inexperienced leader who lost the Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 surrounding Azerbaijani territories. That is devastating for him. But it is great that he finally saw the best thing to do was to stop the loss of lives, stop sacrificing Armenian soldiers and Azerbaijani soldiers and civilians. And at the end of the war, Armenia clearly could not win, especially after Azerbaijan regained Shusha.